Position
CodexWhere you sit compared to the button. After the flop, later seats act after most players, so they see more before they decide. That is why the same two cards can be a raise on the button and a fold in an early seat.
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The Archive
Kept by Tychon. Terms in plain words, and the research on how people make calls.
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13 entries
Codex
The two cards you are dealt. Pairs, high cards and suited cards that sit close together play better than low, scattered cards. Our chart lists which hands to raise from each seat when everyone folds to you.
The price of a call. Divide your call by the pot after you call. The pot is 100 after their bet and you call 50: the final pot is 150, so the price is 50 out of 150, a third. On the river, or when they are all in, call when you win more often than that. Earlier, more betting can change the price.
Counting outs
CodexAn out is a card that turns your hand into the winner. A flush draw after the flop has 9 outs: 13 cards of the suit minus the 4 you can see. Quick check: outs times 4 with two cards to come, times 2 with one, gives a rough percent. That is a rule of thumb. Worked out exactly, nine outs with two cards to come is about 35%.
What the shared cards allow. Three cards of one suit make a flush possible. Three cards that fit inside five in a row make a straight possible. A pair on the board makes a full house possible.
Hand strength
CodexHow your hand stacks up against the hands that could beat it. A pair of aces is strong on a quiet board. With four hearts showing and no heart in your hand, any one heart beats it.
Reviewing your play
CodexJudge the choice, not the result. A good call can lose and a bad call can win. Log the hand, then check the decision against what you knew when you made it.
Spotting patterns
CodexOne hand tells you little. Many hands show habits: the spots where you fold too often, or the calls you keep making. Logging hands is how you start to see them.
Research
More risk after a win?
Evidence: mixedAfter winning, people in this study took bigger risks, as if they were playing with house money. After losing, a bet that could get them back to even looked extra tempting.
How sure are you?
Evidence: well replicatedOn hard tasks, people think they did better than they did. On easy tasks, they think they did worse.
Why near misses feel close
Evidence: mixedIn a slot machine study, near misses felt worse than clear losses, yet made people want to keep playing. Brain scans showed some of the same reward areas responding as they did for real wins. A hand that almost won is still a loss.
Am I due for a win?
Evidence: earlyAfter a long streak, real casino players bet on it ending, even though each spin is independent. The study watched one roulette table, so treat it as a start. At the table: ten folds in a row do not make good cards due. Every deal is fresh.
Does practice alone make you great?
Evidence: mixedA large review found focused practice mattered most in games like chess, where it explained about a quarter of the differences in skill. The rest came from other things, and researchers still debate the size. No poker players were in it.
Nothing matches yet. Ask Tychon about it.
Well replicatedMany studies agree.
MixedSome agree, some don't.
EarlyOnly a few studies so far.
Exact mathGraded by checking every case.
Rule of thumbGraded by a starting-hand chart, like the ones coaches teach.
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